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SCHW

Charles SchwabC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record asset gathering, advice flows, higher sweep cash and Q3 margin expansion support a stronger earnings base [#SEC-8K-2026-10-15]. The deterministic prior is positive, with 0.98 evidence quality and a 0.685 thesis-change score versus the April monitoring baseline.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.
What can break
Client cash allocation and the TD IDA balance floor constrain funding-mix flexibility; agreement-level fees and balances must not be treated as consolidated Q3 revenue [#REL-0d71926b-64a8-4283-bbc5-2b3482984a65].
Momentum
24
Value
54
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $95.00 · Bull $110.00 · Bear $73.00Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $116.29
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -16.7
Value54 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -4.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Client cash allocation and the TD IDA balance floor constrain funding-mix flexibility; agreement-level fees and balances must not be treated as consolidated Q3 revenue [#REL-0d71926b-64a8-4283-bbc5-2b3482984a65].
  • • Full-year revenue and net-interest-margin expectations shifted toward the low end of prior ranges despite Q3 records (MarketWatch report via Yahoo Finance).
  • • The EPS beat coexisted with a revenue miss and lower-end full-year revenue and NIM expectations.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-15

Q3 earnings beat, revenue miss and negative repricing

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-16.7
Δ21d
-31.8
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-25.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 23.7 / Value 53.5 / Sentiment 57.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$73.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$156.64B
Beta
0.93
Shares Out
1.73B
P/E (TTM)
24.1
P/S (TTM)
6.79
P/FCF (TTM)
11.54
Rev YoY
+15.3%
EPS YoY
+42.1%
Gross Margin
+85.0%
Op Margin
+49.7%
Net Debt
-$40.66B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data