SBS

Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo SABESPA

NYSE / Utilities

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$6.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$4.90

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$3.70

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-27

AI commentary

The ADR closed at $4.73 on October 26, down 26.09% from October 23, but the checked sources did not establish a cause. Price history The stored earnings-document row is about Stratec SE, not Sabesp, and was excluded. No verified post-print analyst revisions or fresh ADR-target consensus were available. Despite genuine operating milestones, the evidence supports monitoring rather than a strong rebound call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-27

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-11-05eventNovember 5 third-quarter results test the cost trajectoryMedium impact

Sabesp schedules its 3Q26 release for November 5. The key test is whether operating costs and funding expense stabilize after 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA fell 3.2% and adjusted net income fell 41.2% year over year. [#SEC-6K-2026-08-12] [#IR-CALENDAR-2026-10-27] 2Q26 filing IR calendar

2026-11-30eventEMAE share-incorporation implementationMedium impact

EMAE shareholders approved incorporation of their remaining shares into Sabesp in September, but the cited notice described subsequent share crediting as prospective. Confirmation of implementation and its financing or dilution effects remains relevant; approval alone does not establish completion. [#SEC-6K-2026-09-18] Joint material fact

2026-12-31catalystUniversalization delivery versus capital and margin costsHigh impact

Sabesp reported R$7.5 billion of first-half capital spending and expected close to R$20 billion for 2026. Its September dashboard showed urban water and sewage units ahead of target, but informal/rural sewage and treatment below target; the dashboard says results await validation. Sustained progress without further margin or debt deterioration would support the investment case. [#SEC-6K-2026-08-12] [#IR-UNIVERSALIZATION-2026-09] 2Q26 filing IR dashboard

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology