B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$238.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RTX
RTXBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 produced 14% reported sales growth, 16% organic growth, 21% adjusted-EPS growth, margin expansion across all three segments and $2.9 billion of free cash flow. Robust commercial-aftermarket and defense demand, combined with the $289 billion backlog, supports multi-year growth if RTX converts orders efficiently.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
Backlog conversion depends on productivity and capacity execution; delays, cost pressure or weaker cash conversion could offset strong demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Momentum
42
Value
52
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $238.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-09-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $229.13
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d +18.3
Value52 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog conversion depends on productivity and capacity execution; delays, cost pressure or weaker cash conversion could offset strong demand. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
- • Failure to achieve the raised 2026 adjusted-sales, adjusted-EPS or free-cash-flow outlook could trigger downside because the Q2 strength appears substantially recognized. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
- • The raised outlook and backlog are substantially visible, increasing the importance of execution rather than further multiple expansion.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Delivery against the raised 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+18.3
Δ21d
+0.1
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-14.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 41.6 / Value 52.1 / Sentiment 63.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$257.44B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
1.35B
P/E (TTM)
38.7
P/S (TTM)
2.94
P/FCF (TTM)
199.69
Rev YoY
+14.5%
EPS YoY
+28.0%
Gross Margin
+20.3%
Op Margin
+10.7%
Net Debt
$32.52B
Current Ratio
1.01
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data