B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
+11.2% vs current
RRR
Red Rock ResortsBNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
+3.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
-16.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-26
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+46.4
Score
AI commentary
News flow over the past two months was mostly earnings-driven and generally neutral to mildly constructive, with the company showing resilient top-line trends but no clear evidence yet of a stronger post-print estimate-revision cycle. The deterministic prior is positive, but the modest gap to the median target and limited fresh catalyst density keep this in monitoring territory rather than a high-conviction momentum setup.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-26
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30catalystQ1 resilience plus June dividend supports near-term downsideMedium impact
First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 1.9% year over year to $507.3 million even as adjusted EBITDA slipped 1.2% to $212.6 million, and the company declared a $0.26 Class A dividend payable June 30, 2026; that combination supports a steady near-term tape but does not yet prove renewed earnings acceleration [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
2026-12-31catalystNorth Fork opening remains the clearest incremental growth hook for late 2026High impact
The 10-Q says the North Fork Project in Madera County began construction in September 2024, carries expected total project cost of about $750 million, and is currently estimated to be completed and opened in the fourth quarter of 2026; if execution stays on track, investors have a visible new-unit catalyst beyond the mature Las Vegas locals base [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-07].
2026-12-31catalystLiquidity is adequate, but leverage and capex must stay controlled for reratingMedium impact
At March 31, 2026 the company had $134.0 million of cash, $743.0 million of revolver availability net of borrowings and letters of credit, and guided to roughly $260 million to $310 million of 2026 capital expenditures; stable execution against those commitments would help preserve the equity story, while slippage would likely cap upside [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology