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RIVN

Rivian AutomotiveD
Nasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 volume holds, R2 unit economics improve as production scales, and software and services profits support a narrower loss trajectory. Q2 revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.658 billion, with $179 million of consolidated gross profit.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
2026 delivery guidance remained at 65,000–70,000 despite strong Q3 deliveries, leaving a meaningful execution test. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-02]
Momentum
23
Value
36
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.61
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d -10.1
Value36 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -29.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -29.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 delivery guidance remained at 65,000–70,000 despite strong Q3 deliveries, leaving a meaningful execution test. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-02]
  • • Automotive gross profit remained negative in Q2, while regulatory credits contributed to revenue and gross-profit improvement. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Reaffirmed rather than raised delivery guidance leaves execution risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

October 29 Q3 results: margins and cash use

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.1
Δ21d
-31.3
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-29.6
Δ21d
-23.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 23.1 / Value 35.8 / Sentiment 70.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$17.13B
Beta
1.78
Shares Out
1.45B
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.8
P/S (TTM)
4.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.26
Rev YoY
+27.2%
EPS YoY
-35.0%
Gross Margin
+2.1%
Op Margin
-60.1%
Net Debt
-$887M
Current Ratio
2.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data