B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$50.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
RGR
Sturm RugerDNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected end-market demand and upward analyst revisions toward the high target range, supporting a move toward the analyst high of $50.40 within 12 months. Method: base = analyst median ($41.205) which is +10.38% vs ANCHOR; bull = analyst high ($50.40) which is +35.02% vs ANCHOR; bear = analyst low ($31.00) which is -16.95% vs ANCHOR.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Material legal liability or product-safety litigation
Momentum
93
Value
47
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $41.21 · Bull $50.40 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-03-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.00
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -0.0
Value47 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Material legal liability or product-safety litigation
- • Regulatory or legislative restrictions on firearms sales
- • Bear case assumes demand softening, increased regulatory/legal pressure, or inventory destocking driving multiple compression toward the analyst low near $31.00 within 12 months.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-01
Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-8.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 93.4 / Value 47.3 / Sentiment 44.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$41.21
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$726.53M
Beta
0.20
Shares Out
15.98M
P/E (TTM)
17.5
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
33.52
Rev YoY
+19.3%
EPS YoY
-140.8%
Gross Margin
+18.7%
Op Margin
+1.7%
Net Debt
-$90.73M
Current Ratio
3.35
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data