B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
+46.6% vs current
REPL
Replimune GroupCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
-43.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
-77.5% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-23
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.8
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+10.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence confirms the second FDA CRL on April 10, 2026, and the packet's secondary coverage described a sharp post-news selloff. The current anchor price of $4.91 remains far below the packet's $13.00 median target, but analyst revision data are absent, social context is unavailable, and coverage is thin. This should be read as a low-conviction monitoring view focused on regulatory-path clarification rather than a catalyst-driven call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-23
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-10eventFDA issues second Complete Response Letter for RP1 BLAHigh impact
Replimune disclosed in its April 13, 2026 8-K that on April 10, 2026 it received a second Complete Response Letter from the FDA for RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec) in combination with nivolumab for advanced melanoma. This is the dominant thesis-resetting event; the packet's secondary coverage described a severe share-price reaction, but the primary source does not provide a resolved forward timeline. [#8-K-2026-04-13]
2027-05-23catalystRP1 regulatory-path clarification remains the main monitoring itemHigh impact
After the second CRL, the key forward-looking company-specific monitor is whether Replimune discloses a credible FDA interaction, resubmission path, or required additional work for RP1 in advanced melanoma. The available primary-source evidence confirms the CRL but does not establish timing, requirements, or likelihood of a successful resubmission, so this is a low-conviction monitoring catalyst rather than a firm event date. [#8-K-2026-04-13]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology