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RCKY

Rocky BrandsC
Nasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that Rocky is carrying real top-line momentum into 2026, with XTRATUF and Muck strength, faster retail/DTC growth, lower debt than a year ago, and a plausible path back toward low-40% gross margin once tariff pressure eases and sourcing actions catch up.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Inventory remains elevated in absolute terms at $172.6 million as of March 31, 2026, so any demand slowdown or channel disruption could pressure markdowns and cash conversion [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Momentum
88
Value
58
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -
Value58 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Inventory remains elevated in absolute terms at $172.6 million as of March 31, 2026, so any demand slowdown or channel disruption could pressure markdowns and cash conversion [#8-K-2026-04-28].
  • • Leverage is still meaningful for the size of the business, with total debt around $122.2 million at March 31, 2026 and only $1.7 million of cash, limiting room for error if margins stay compressed [#8-K-2026-04-28].
  • • The bear case is that Q1 showed how fragile earnings remain when tariffs hit sourcing costs: sales grew but adjusted EPS fell to $0.24 from $0.73, and investors still need proof that margin recovery will actually arrive before the sales momentum cools.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Q1 sales momentum must translate into margin recovery

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 88.2 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 41.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$350.92M
Beta
2.72
Shares Out
7.49M
P/E (TTM)
10.6
P/S (TTM)
0.46
P/FCF (TTM)
19.22
Rev YoY
+12.0%
EPS YoY
+279.4%
Gross Margin
+42.2%
Op Margin
+8.8%
Net Debt
$124.12M
Current Ratio
2.97
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data