B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
RCKY
Rocky BrandsCNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Rocky is carrying real top-line momentum into 2026, with XTRATUF and Muck strength, faster retail/DTC growth, lower debt than a year ago, and a plausible path back toward low-40% gross margin once tariff pressure eases and sourcing actions catch up.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.4.
What can break
Inventory remains elevated in absolute terms at $172.6 million as of March 31, 2026, so any demand slowdown or channel disruption could pressure markdowns and cash conversion [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Momentum
88
Value
58
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.00
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +35.0
Value58 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -6.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory remains elevated in absolute terms at $172.6 million as of March 31, 2026, so any demand slowdown or channel disruption could pressure markdowns and cash conversion [#8-K-2026-04-28].
- • Leverage is still meaningful for the size of the business, with total debt around $122.2 million at March 31, 2026 and only $1.7 million of cash, limiting room for error if margins stay compressed [#8-K-2026-04-28].
- • The bear case is that Q1 showed how fragile earnings remain when tariffs hit sourcing costs: sales grew but adjusted EPS fell to $0.24 from $0.73, and investors still need proof that margin recovery will actually arrive before the sales momentum cools.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-01
Q1 sales momentum must translate into margin recovery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+35.0
Δ21d
+35.0
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+2.4
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-6.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 88.2 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 56.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$349.72M
Beta
2.72
Shares Out
7.49M
P/E (TTM)
10.6
P/S (TTM)
0.46
P/FCF (TTM)
19.22
Rev YoY
+12.0%
EPS YoY
+279.4%
Gross Margin
+42.2%
Op Margin
+8.8%
Net Debt
$124.12M
Current Ratio
2.97
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data