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RBRK

RubrikF
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a durable growth-plus-leverage thesis: subscription ARR grew 33%, subscription revenue 37%, subscription ARR contribution margin improved to 14.0% from 9.4%, and free cash flow remained positive. Product breadth across cyber recovery, AI-agent security, and identity resilience could support longer-term expansion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
AI, Agent Cloud, Annapurna, and identity-resilience launches may take longer than expected to become material revenue drivers.
Momentum
92
Value
40
Sentiment
29
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $76.00Analysis 2026-09-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $121.26
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d -5.5
Value40 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment29 · Δ7d -15.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI, Agent Cloud, Annapurna, and identity-resilience launches may take longer than expected to become material revenue drivers.
  • • Adjusted net new Cloud ARR growth of 20% trails subscription ARR growth of 33%, creating a risk that reported growth is not fully representative of underlying cloud acceleration. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
  • • The post-earnings share-price decline indicates that a strong reported quarter and raised outlook were not sufficient to satisfy the market.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-27

Q2 FY27 beat-and-raise resets the execution bar

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
92
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
-5.4
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
29
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.2
Δ21d
-13.4
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 92.4 / Value 40.2 / Sentiment 29.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$76.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$28.14B
Beta
-
Shares Out
207.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-76.5
P/S (TTM)
12.29
P/FCF (TTM)
60.54
Rev YoY
+39.0%
EPS YoY
-61.4%
Gross Margin
+80.6%
Op Margin
-21.4%
Net Debt
-$508.09M
Current Ratio
1.65
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data