B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QUAD
Quad/GraphicsANYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Packaging expansion and a broader Wakefern relationship could add higher-value work while productivity measures support earnings. Quad's July release reported second-quarter sales growth of 1%, although adjusted EBITDA slipped to $42 million from $43 million.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Full-year free-cash-flow guidance depends on a substantial second-half reversal from negative $66.2 million in the first half. [#10-Q-2026-07-29] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Momentum
66
Value
68
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.75 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.17
Why
Momentum66 · Δ7d +0.7
Value68 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -0.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Full-year free-cash-flow guidance depends on a substantial second-half reversal from negative $66.2 million in the first half. [#10-Q-2026-07-29] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • Lower first-half print volumes and agency-solutions sales could persist despite second-quarter sales growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • First-half free cash flow of negative $66.2 million leaves a demanding second-half bridge to positive full-year guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28
October 28 results and 2026 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
66
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-13.2
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-13.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 65.5 / Value 68.2 / Sentiment 57.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$486.15M
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
51.5M
P/E (TTM)
14.1
P/S (TTM)
0.12
P/FCF (TTM)
6.09
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
-3623.8%
Gross Margin
+18.5%
Op Margin
+5.1%
Net Debt
$380.7M
Current Ratio
0.87
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data