B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QFIN
QfinBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-28
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+26.6
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+26.6
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+82.8
Score
AI commentary
Sentiment is negative after the earnings release: QFIN closed at $9.35 on August 26, down 18.91%, and at $9.17 on August 27, down another 1.93%. Analyst responses were mixed but included multiple downgrades or target reductions. No reliable social, options, or short-interest data is supplied, and no stored earnings transcript is available, so confidence remains limited. [#MARKETBEAT-2026-08-27][#STOCKANALYSIS-2026-08-26]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-28
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-26eventQ2 earnings reset and weak Q3 outlook dominate near-term sentimentHigh impact
Q2 diluted EPS was $0.48 versus a reported consensus of $1.06 and revenue was about $525 million versus $562 million consensus. Management reported 31.6% year-over-year revenue contraction, 75% year-over-year non-GAAP net-income contraction, and guided Q3 non-GAAP net income to RMB400-500 million, down 67%-73% year over year. [#IR-2026-08-25][#MARKETBEAT-2026-08-26]
2026-11-26catalystRisk metrics, liquidity, dividend, and repurchases provide partial downside supportMedium impact
The company reported a 5.6% Day-1 delinquency rate, an 88.1% 30-day collection rate, RMB1.1 billion of operating cash flow, approximately RMB10.6 billion of cash and short-term investments, a $0.46 per ADS interim dividend, and approximately $234 million of ADS repurchases. These supports are meaningful but do not offset the earnings and funding reset. [#IR-2026-08-25]
2027-06-30catalystAI-native platform and disciplined overseas expansion remain longer-term optionalityHigh impact
Management said it is pursuing AI-native operating leverage and disciplined overseas expansion while prioritizing risk, capital, and operational efficiency. The opportunity is credible but unquantified and depends on stabilization of funding conditions, loan volumes, and credit performance. [#IR-2026-08-25]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology