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QFIN

QfinA
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improving risk indicators, substantial reported liquidity, and disciplined underwriting could support a recovery if loan volume and earnings stabilize. Overseas expansion is an unproven option, not a modeled driver.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -37.7.
What can break
A director reported open-market ADS sales on September 24–25; these transactions do not establish an operating outlook. #SEC-FORM4-2026-09-28
Momentum
3
Value
65
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.70 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $3.20Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.24
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d 0.0
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d -37.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -37.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A director reported open-market ADS sales on September 24–25; these transactions do not establish an operating outlook. #SEC-FORM4-2026-09-28
  • • A securities class-action complaint alleges misleading statements about regulatory headwinds. These are allegations, not established findings. Lawsuit summary
  • • Q2 loan volume fell 25.1% year over year, revenue declined, and Q3 profit guidance remains weak.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

Q3 profit outlook faces an operating test

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
76
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-37.7
Δ21d
-29.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 2.8 / Value 64.6 / Sentiment 75.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$690.01M
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
121.91M
P/E (TTM)
2.6
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM)
1.66
Rev YoY
-12.4%
EPS YoY
-40.3%
Gross Margin
+80.1%
Op Margin
+29.6%
Net Debt
-$871.75M
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data