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QFIN

QfinB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improved delinquency and collection indicators, substantial liquidity, capital returns, and a roughly RMB500 million one-off tax expense provide potential recovery levers if funding conditions normalize. AI and overseas initiatives offer longer-term upside, but evidence remains early.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
What can break
Analyst revisions are mixed-to-negative and the post-earnings price reaction was sharply negative; the transcript and detailed forward estimate set are not available in the packet. [#MARKETBEAT-2026-08-27][#STOCKANALYSIS-2026-08-26]
Momentum
2
Value
74
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.75 · Bull $13.50 · Bear $7.25Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.62
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -0.7
Value74 · Δ7d +9.9
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revisions are mixed-to-negative and the post-earnings price reaction was sharply negative; the transcript and detailed forward estimate set are not available in the packet. [#MARKETBEAT-2026-08-27][#STOCKANALYSIS-2026-08-26]
  • • Credit metrics improved in Q2, but management is tightening underwriting and capital allocation, which may constrain future origination growth. [#IR-2026-08-25]
  • • The post-print setup is negative: revenue, GAAP earnings, and non-GAAP earnings fell sharply, management expects another large year-over-year decline in Q3, and it described continued industry contraction, tighter oversight, and funding pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-26

Q2 earnings reset and weak Q3 outlook dominate near-term sentiment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-8.5
Value
74
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.9
Δ21d
+9.9
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+22.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 2.1 / Value 74.3 / Sentiment 74.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.52B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
121.91M
P/E (TTM)
2.6
P/S (TTM)
0.90
P/FCF (TTM)
1.66
Rev YoY
-12.4%
EPS YoY
-40.3%
Gross Margin
+80.1%
Op Margin
+29.6%
Net Debt
-$871.75M
Current Ratio
0.69
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data