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PRKS

United Parks ResortsC
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 was distorted more by weather and international softness than by a core demand break: management said weather and international declines together pressured attendance by roughly 220,000 visits and that attendance would have risen more than 1% absent those factors, while in-park per-cap spending hit a record $40.62, pass sales rose about 10% in Q1 and 12% through April 30, and Discovery Cove/group bookings were ahead of 2025. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Capital returns are supportive for EPS optics but also consume liquidity; PRKS repurchased about $92.7M in Q1 and another $64.8M through May 8. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Momentum
29
Value
65
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $44.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.45
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -1.8
Value65 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital returns are supportive for EPS optics but also consume liquidity; PRKS repurchased about $92.7M in Q1 and another $64.8M through May 8. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
  • • International visitation weakened year over year and was cited as a separate attendance drag, which raises concern that recovery depends on factors outside management control. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
  • • The bear case is that the weak print still exposed real operating fragility: attendance fell 5.0%, admission per cap slipped 0.5%, operating expenses rose 6.2% on insurance, third-party labor, consulting, and other costs, net loss widened to $34.1M, and PRKS enters its key season needing near-ideal weather and cleaner execution to recover.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-11

Q1 miss reset near-term expectations into peak season

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-25.3
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+16.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 29.2 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 51.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.02B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
45.34M
P/E (TTM)
10.8
P/S (TTM)
1.15
P/FCF (TTM)
8.70
Rev YoY
-1.4%
EPS YoY
-7.2%
Gross Margin
+34.9%
Op Margin
+20.7%
Net Debt
$2.25B
Current Ratio
0.48
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data