B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
+38.8% vs current
PRGS
Progress SoftwareANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.50
+20.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
-15.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-19
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.7
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+51.3
Score
AI commentary
News tone is constructive following the June 30 Q2 beat and raised outlook. Primary evidence is strong, but the recurring-growth signal remains modest, analyst-revision coverage is unavailable, and social/options data is absent; this supports a cautious monitoring view rather than a high-conviction momentum call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-19
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-10-17eventQ3 results test recurring-growth qualityHigh impact
The next reporting checkpoint should show whether AI-related demand and broad portfolio strength translate into better ARR growth; ARR was up only 2% year over year and net retention was 100% in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30].
2026-10-17catalystQ2 beat-and-raise digestionHigh impact
Q2 revenue rose 7% to $253 million, non-GAAP EPS reached $1.62, adjusted free cash flow rose to $79.2 million, and management raised FY2026 revenue, EPS, and cash-flow guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30].
2027-07-19catalystDeleveraging and capital returns support reratingHigh impact
Progress reduced trailing net leverage to about 2.9x and repurchased $35 million of shares in Q2, supporting a potential cash-flow rerating if margins and free-cash-flow conversion remain strong [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology