B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
PBF
PBF EnergyDNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: sustained strong refining margins, higher utilization and successful capital projects lift free cash flow and justify the high analyst target; sentiment shifts toward premium multiple supported by dividend/ buyback optionality.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Crude-price shocks that compress demand and margins
Momentum
96
Value
60
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.34 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-02-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $84.69
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -2.4
Value60 · Δ7d +2.1
Sentiment26 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Crude-price shocks that compress demand and margins
- • Extended or new refinery outages/turnaround delays reducing throughput
- • Bear case: a reversal in crude/refining spreads, unplanned outages, or macro demand weakness drives margins lower toward trough levels and forces multiple compression toward the low analyst targets.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+0.0
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.5 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 25.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$33.34
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$9.03B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
118.54M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-54.8
P/S (TTM)
0.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.20
Rev YoY
+56.2%
EPS YoY
-16421.4%
Gross Margin
+4.4%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
$2.39B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data