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PBF

PBF EnergyD
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: sustained strong refining margins, higher utilization and successful capital projects lift free cash flow and justify the high analyst target; sentiment shifts toward premium multiple supported by dividend/ buyback optionality.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Crude-price shocks that compress demand and margins
Momentum
93
Value
60
Sentiment
28
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $33.34 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-02-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $68.77
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -0.3
Value60 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment28 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Crude-price shocks that compress demand and margins
  • • Extended or new refinery outages/turnaround delays reducing throughput
  • • Bear case: a reversal in crude/refining spreads, unplanned outages, or macro demand weakness drives margins lower toward trough levels and forces multiple compression toward the low analyst targets.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-4.6
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+27.5
Sentiment
28
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 93.2 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 27.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$33.34
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.9B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
118.54M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-54.0
P/S (TTM)
0.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.00
Rev YoY
+56.2%
EPS YoY
-16421.4%
Gross Margin
+4.4%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
$2.39B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data