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PARR

Par PacificC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strong Q2 results, substantially completed Hawaii turnaround, strong refining margins, renewable-fuels start-up, and debt reduction create a credible path to higher normalized earnings and cash generation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Debt-service and capital requirements could pressure cash conversion if margins weaken.
Momentum
81
Value
69
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $70.00 · Bull $84.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-08-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $84.57
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d -10.0
Value69 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt-service and capital requirements could pressure cash conversion if margins weaken.
  • • Peer comparability is limited and social-context coverage is absent.
  • • Q2 benefited from unusually favorable refining conditions and price-lag effects; throughput remained below the prior-year level, and earnings could contract sharply if margins normalize or turnaround execution disappoints.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 2026 earnings materially reset near-term earnings power

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
81
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.0
Δ21d
-13.5
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+10.6
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-8.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 81.4 / Value 69.5 / Sentiment 52.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.11B
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
50.1M
P/E (TTM)
7.8
P/S (TTM)
0.25
P/FCF (TTM)
11.22
Rev YoY
+56.8%
EPS YoY
+699.1%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+13.3%
Net Debt
$1.23B
Current Ratio
1.84
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data