RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ORN

Orion GroupD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Backlog converts, Marine utilization recovers, and Concrete growth supports delivery of revised 2026 guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Backlog and a large pursuit pipeline do not guarantee award timing, project starts, or realized margins.
Momentum
25
Value
48
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.40 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $6.20Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.70
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d +2.6
Value48 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog and a large pursuit pipeline do not guarantee award timing, project starts, or realized margins.
  • • Client site readiness and supplied-material delays reduced Marine volume and equipment utilization in Q2; renewed delays threaten the revised outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • Further Marine delays could cause another profit reset despite healthy bookings.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Marine backlog conversion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+6.7
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 25.0 / Value 48.2 / Sentiment 51.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$8.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$352.71M
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
40.5M
P/E (TTM)
43.1
P/S (TTM)
0.50
P/FCF (TTM)
19.08
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
-585.3%
Gross Margin
+11.7%
Op Margin
+0.7%
Net Debt
$47.1M
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data