B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ONEW
OneWater MarineBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-11.6
Negative
Company
-20.0
Negative
Macro
-11.4
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+70.7
Score
AI commentary
The available earnings coverage presents a mixed print: improved margin and leverage, but consensus misses and weaker guidance. The packet does not establish the immediate post-release price reaction or post-print analyst revisions. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment readings are unavailable; the zero fields above are placeholders, not measured neutral readings. The September 28 price anchor is not an earnings-day reaction. This remains a cautious monitoring view.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-15eventFiscal 2026 results test reduced guidanceHigh impact
The next annual results will test OneWater's revised fiscal 2026 outlook: revenue of $1.75 billion–$1.80 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $68 million–$78 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.35–$0.55. The company expects dealership same-store sales to decline by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage. The reporting date is an estimate, not a company announcement. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
2027-06-30catalystBoat pricing and mix sustain margin improvementHigh impact
Fiscal Q3 gross margin rose 70 basis points to 24.0% despite lower new-boat unit volumes. A durable benefit from product mix, pricing, and prior brand exits would support earnings; renewed discounting would undermine it. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
2027-06-30catalystInventory discipline and debt reductionHigh impact
OneWater reported June inventory of $485.5 million, down from $517.1 million a year earlier, and adjusted net leverage of 3.7x versus 5.8x. Further improvement could increase financial flexibility, but weak boat demand could slow the progress. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology