RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ONB

Old National BancorpB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Successful margin expansion and lower-than-expected loan-loss provisions, combined with credible cost saves from prior integrations, pushes multiple expansion toward the high end of consensus.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.
What can break
Net interest margin compression from rising deposit costs could materially reduce NII and EPS [#SERP-2].
Momentum
40
Value
60
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.20 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-01-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.82
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +0.1
Value60 · Δ7d +7.6
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +4.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Net interest margin compression from rising deposit costs could materially reduce NII and EPS [#SERP-2].
  • • Significant deposit outflows or failed integration/execution on M&A would raise funding costs and impair capital metrics [#SERP-6].
  • • Persistent deposit cost pressure and rising credit losses weigh on NIM and earnings, keeping the stock near the analyst low and eroding investor confidence.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-24

Q4 2025 / FY 2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-15.3
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+7.6
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+7.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 40.2 / Value 59.7 / Sentiment 65.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$26.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.36B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
382.57M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
3.85
P/FCF (TTM)
17.41
Rev YoY
+9.5%
EPS YoY
+93.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.1%
Net Debt
$7.09B
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data