B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ON
ON SemiconductorANasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 9% year over year to $1.604 billion, non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%, and free cash flow was $425.4 million. Confirming Q3 guidance, scaling AI power wins and completing Synaptics on the revised terms could support further upside [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03] [#8-K-2026-10-01].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
What can break
AI power and Sungrow platform announcements do not quantify future shipments or revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03] [#PR-2026-10-14].
Momentum
57
Value
63
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $103.46
Why
Momentum57 · Δ7d +5.2
Value63 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -2.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI power and Sungrow platform announcements do not quantify future shipments or revenue [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03] [#PR-2026-10-14].
- • Onsemi's 10-K identifies manufacturing yield, supply availability, pricing and changing customer orders as operating risks [#10-K-2026-02-09].
- • AMG remained down year over year in Q2.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02 · AMC
November 2 results test Q3 guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
57
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
+30.3
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-30.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 57.1 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 57.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$77.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$30.63B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
389.31M
P/E (TTM)
76.6
P/S (TTM)
3.82
P/FCF (TTM)
17.26
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
+36.5%
Gross Margin
+37.1%
Op Margin
+18.2%
Net Debt
$704.2M
Current Ratio
3.46
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data