B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ON
ON SemiconductorBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-14.7
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-14.7
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+65.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+100.0
Score
AI commentary
Headline flow is dense and mostly constructive, driven by the May 4 earnings release, the late-April NIO collaboration announcement, and the May 6-12 convertible-note sequence. The stock's anchor close at $113.11 on 2026-05-15 suggests the market has rewarded the recovery and AI/EV narrative despite the financing overhang. Peer context is now better anchored to 10-K-named competitors in power, analog, automotive, and industrial semiconductors, but social coverage was not supplied, analyst-target coverage is incomplete because count is null, and the deterministic score only implies modest forward returns, so this should remain a moderate-confidence monitoring memo rather than an aggressive chase.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-11eventConvertible-note financing increases flexibility but leaves a technical and dilution overhangMedium impact
The May 12 8-K says onsemi completed a $1.5 billion 0% convertible senior notes offering due 2031, received about $1.473 billion of net proceeds, used about $331.9 million to repurchase roughly 3.1 million shares, and expects to use the remainder for general corporate purposes including debt repayment; that helps liquidity and capital return, but the hedge-and-warrant structure can still complicate upside capture [#8-K-2026-05-12].
2026-07-03catalystQ1 beat now needs Q2 margin and segment follow-throughMedium impact
Q1 revenue of $1.513 billion exceeded the midpoint of guidance, non-GAAP EPS was $0.64, and AI data center revenue grew more than 30% sequentially and more than doubled year over year, but AMG fell 5% year over year and ISG fell 5% sequentially, so the near-term trade still depends on Q2 revenue of $1.535-$1.635 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 38.0%-40.0% holding up beyond one strong print [#PR-2026-05-04] [#10-Q-2026-05-04].
2026-09-16eventSeptember 16 Analyst Day is the next company-set checkpoint for the recovery narrativeMedium impact
onsemi's investor-relations site lists Analyst Day 2026 for September 16, 2026, giving management a formal venue to update investors on AI data center traction, automotive and industrial demand, and margin recovery after the May earnings release [#IR-2026-05-16] [#PR-2026-05-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology