B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
-0.5% vs current
ON
ON SemiconductorBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
-18.4% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
-36.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-16
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+29.2
Score
AI commentary
Headline flow is dense and mostly constructive, driven by the May 4 earnings release, the late-April NIO collaboration announcement, and the May 6-12 convertible-note sequence. The stock's anchor close at $113.11 on 2026-05-15 suggests the market has rewarded the recovery and AI/EV narrative despite the financing overhang. Peer context is now better anchored to 10-K-named competitors in power, analog, automotive, and industrial semiconductors, but social coverage was not supplied, analyst-target coverage is incomplete because count is null, and the deterministic score only implies modest forward returns, so this should remain a moderate-confidence monitoring memo rather than an aggressive chase.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-16
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-11eventConvertible-note financing increases flexibility but leaves a technical and dilution overhangMedium impact
The May 12 8-K says onsemi completed a $1.5 billion 0% convertible senior notes offering due 2031, received about $1.473 billion of net proceeds, used about $331.9 million to repurchase roughly 3.1 million shares, and expects to use the remainder for general corporate purposes including debt repayment; that helps liquidity and capital return, but the hedge-and-warrant structure can still complicate upside capture [#8-K-2026-05-12].
2026-07-03catalystQ1 beat now needs Q2 margin and segment follow-throughMedium impact
Q1 revenue of $1.513 billion exceeded the midpoint of guidance, non-GAAP EPS was $0.64, and AI data center revenue grew more than 30% sequentially and more than doubled year over year, but AMG fell 5% year over year and ISG fell 5% sequentially, so the near-term trade still depends on Q2 revenue of $1.535-$1.635 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 38.0%-40.0% holding up beyond one strong print [#PR-2026-05-04] [#10-Q-2026-05-04].
2026-09-16eventSeptember 16 Analyst Day is the next company-set checkpoint for the recovery narrativeMedium impact
onsemi's investor-relations site lists Analyst Day 2026 for September 16, 2026, giving management a formal venue to update investors on AI data center traction, automotive and industrial demand, and margin recovery after the May earnings release [#IR-2026-05-16] [#PR-2026-05-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology