B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ON
ON SemiconductorBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The supported bull case is still a monitoring-style recovery thesis: Q1 beat the midpoint of guidance, non-GAAP operating margin stayed at 19.1%, AI data center revenue accelerated sequentially, and management is pointing to better underlying demand in automotive, industrial, and AI infrastructure [#PR-2026-05-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Inventory rose to $2.049 billion from $1.990 billion at December 31, 2025 while cash fell to $2.004 billion from $2.148 billion, leaving less room for a demand wobble if auto or industrial recovery stalls [#PR-2026-05-04] [#10-Q-2026-05-04].
Momentum
20
Value
63
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $128.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $109.61
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d +0.6
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory rose to $2.049 billion from $1.990 billion at December 31, 2025 while cash fell to $2.004 billion from $2.148 billion, leaving less room for a demand wobble if auto or industrial recovery stalls [#PR-2026-05-04] [#10-Q-2026-05-04].
- • Q1 GAAP operating margin was negative 3.5% and GAAP EPS was negative $0.08 because restructuring, asset impairments, and other charges reached $329.3 million, so the earnings-quality debate is not finished even after the non-GAAP beat [#PR-2026-05-04].
- • The bear case is that the stock is already discounting a lot more recovery than the evidence proves.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-11
Convertible-note financing increases flexibility but leaves a technical and dilution overhang
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+10.1
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 19.6 / Value 63.1 / Sentiment 77.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$32.46B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
389.31M
P/E (TTM)
76.6
P/S (TTM)
3.82
P/FCF (TTM)
17.26
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
+36.5%
Gross Margin
+37.1%
Op Margin
+18.2%
Net Debt
$704.2M
Current Ratio
3.46
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data