B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OII
Oceaneering InternationalCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-26
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+25.1
Positive
Company
+10.0
Positive
Macro
+25.1
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-55.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+50.6
Score
AI commentary
The October 22 close fell 16.9% from the pre-release October 21 close; October 23 recovered 7.2% but remained about 10.9% below the pre-release close, based on historical closes. This reaction contrasts with management's characterization of Q3 results as in line with guidance and consensus. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] No reliable post-print analyst revision was verified. Zero-valued social, options, short-interest and employee metrics denote unavailable data, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-26
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-12-31catalystQ4 earnings step-down tests confidenceMedium impact
After Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $119 million, Oceaneering guided Q4 EBITDA to $85 million–$95 million. It expects lower Subsea Robotics operating income from rig transits, geographic mix and mobilization costs. Delivery against that outlook is the near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] [#8-K-2026-10-21]
2027-12-31catalyst2027 EBITDA guidance requires executionHigh impact
Management initiated 2027 EBITDA guidance of $430 million–$480 million and expects free cash flow above its 2026 forecast. Subsea Robotics pricing and contract conversion could support delivery, but the range remains broad. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
2027-12-31catalystBookings conversion and continued repurchasesHigh impact
Management reported approximately $180 million of ROV and survey awards and approximately $160 million of Manufactured Products awards in Q3. It also expects share repurchases to continue in 2027. The investment case depends on awards becoming profitable revenue rather than bookings alone. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology