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OESX

Orion EnergyF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that FY26 proved the turnaround is real: Orion is growing again, margins have reset above 30% in each quarter, adjusted EBITDA is positive, and FY27 guidance implies the company can keep compounding from a cleaner cost base and broader project mix.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
EPS missed consensus even though revenue beat, so the print was constructive but not clean.
Momentum
100
Value
46
Sentiment
1
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-06-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.28
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d +0.1
Value46 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment1 · Δ7d -11.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • EPS missed consensus even though revenue beat, so the print was constructive but not clean.
  • • FY27 guidance depends on converting a $30M backlog and a broader pipeline into timely revenue recognition; project slippage would matter.
  • • The bear case is that the quarter was mixed at the headline level because EPS missed consensus even as revenue beat, backlog is still only $30M against a $95M-$97M FY27 revenue guide, and a meaningful part of the growth story depends on project timing and newer segments ramping on schedule.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-04

FY26 print confirms a profitable-growth inflection

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
100
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+12.5
Sentiment
1
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.6
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 100.0 / Value 46.2 / Sentiment 1.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$78.84M
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
4.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-21.7
P/S (TTM)
0.76
P/FCF (TTM)
15.16
Rev YoY
+31.5%
EPS YoY
-226.0%
Gross Margin
+33.6%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$5.54M
Current Ratio
1.54
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data