OESX

Orion EnergyF

Nasdaq / Capital Goods

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$20.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$13.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$7.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-06-07

AI commentary

The earnings reaction was mildly constructive: a post-print market readout reported the shares up 1.97% in premarket trading to $9.30, but the coverage set is thin and no fresh analyst revisions surfaced, so this is still a monitoring-style follow-up rather than a full rerating event.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-07

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-04eventFY26 print confirms a profitable-growth inflectionHigh impact

Orion reported Q4 revenue of $25.7M (+23% y/y), FY26 revenue of $86.3M, FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2M, and a sixth straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA while reiterating FY27 revenue guidance of $95M-$97M and positive adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-06-04] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q4].

2026-09-30catalystBacklog and project demand support the FY27 setupMedium impact

Management said Orion started FY27 with a $30M backlog, up $13M y/y, and attributed the better outlook to improved backlog quality, continued project demand, and expanding opportunities across revenue segments [#SEC-8K-2026-06-04] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q4].

2027-03-31catalystMix expansion into electrical contracting, BESS, and data-center lightingMedium impact

The call highlighted continued expansion beyond legacy LED lighting into electrical contracting, battery energy storage systems, and data-center lighting, which could broaden the revenue base but still needs execution and ramp time to show through in results [#SEC-8K-2026-06-04] [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q4].

View full catalyst timeline

Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-06-07 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology