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OESX

Orion EnergyF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that FY26 proved the turnaround is real: Orion is growing again, margins have reset above 30% in each quarter, adjusted EBITDA is positive, and FY27 guidance implies the company can keep compounding from a cleaner cost base and broader project mix.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
EPS missed consensus even though revenue beat, so the print was constructive but not clean.
Momentum
100
Value
46
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-06-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.28
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d +0.1
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d -14.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • EPS missed consensus even though revenue beat, so the print was constructive but not clean.
  • • FY27 guidance depends on converting a $30M backlog and a broader pipeline into timely revenue recognition; project slippage would matter.
  • • The bear case is that the quarter was mixed at the headline level because EPS missed consensus even as revenue beat, backlog is still only $30M against a $95M-$97M FY27 revenue guide, and a meaningful part of the growth story depends on project timing and newer segments ramping on schedule.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-04

FY26 print confirms a profitable-growth inflection

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
100
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+12.6
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.3
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 100.0 / Value 46.3 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$78.84M
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
4.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-21.7
P/S (TTM)
0.76
P/FCF (TTM)
15.16
Rev YoY
+31.5%
EPS YoY
-226.0%
Gross Margin
+33.6%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$5.54M
Current Ratio
1.54
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data