B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OBT
Orange County BancorpBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$42.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+26.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+26.0
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+71.2
Score
AI commentary
The latest primary-source earnings evidence is operationally positive but mixed in quality because of one-time items and flat loan growth. The T+3 packet contains no post-print price reaction, analyst revisions, or social coverage, so confidence remains moderate and the appropriate stance is cautious monitoring rather than an aggressive bullish thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-28eventRecord second-quarter earnings and stronger NIMMedium impact
Q2 net income rose 30.6% year over year to $13.7 million, EPS rose to $1.02, NIM increased to 4.44%, and deposits grew 5.2%; however, consensus surprise data is unavailable [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
2026-08-15catalystPost-print digestion of earnings quality and loan growthMedium impact
The market may focus on the $5.3 million deferred-tax valuation allowance reversal, $4.8 million loans-held-for-sale fair-value adjustment, approximately $12.6 million adjusted net income, and relatively flat loans after $81.1 million of payoffs [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-28].
2026-12-31catalystDeposit growth and loan-pipeline conversionHigh impact
Sustained low-cost deposit growth, resilient NIM, and conversion of the reported robust loan pipeline could support a rerating, but current loan growth remains constrained by elevated payoffs and has not yet been demonstrated [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology