B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NWN
Northwest NaturalCNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that NWN delivered a solid regulated-utility quarter, kept full-year guidance intact, showed customer and connection growth, and has multiple visible rate-base drivers in Washington, Texas, water, and MX3. Primary filings also support management's claim of sufficient liquidity for planned investment, with expected funding from cash flow, debt, equity, and credit facilities.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
Balance-sheet and financing sensitivity remain important, with NW Holdings reporting $171.3 million of commercial paper outstanding and $2.433 billion of long-term debt at March 31, 2026. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Momentum
62
Value
59
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.50 · Bull $57.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.50
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d -8.4
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Balance-sheet and financing sensitivity remain important, with NW Holdings reporting $171.3 million of commercial paper outstanding and $2.433 billion of long-term debt at March 31, 2026. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
- • Capital intensity remains heavy: 2026 capex is guided to $500-$550 million and 2026-2030 capex to $2.6-$2.9 billion, with funding expected from internal cash generation plus debt or equity. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
- • The bear read is that this was more of a monitoring quarter than a rerating quarter: guidance was reaffirmed rather than raised, operating cash flow fell year over year, capital intensity remains high, and both Washington/Texas regulatory outcomes plus MX3 execution still sit ahead.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 earnings beat prior year but guidance stayed unchanged
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.4
Δ21d
+24.5
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.9
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+4.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 61.7 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 56.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.12B
Beta
0.57
Shares Out
42.09M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
1.53
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.07
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-123.0%
Gross Margin
+43.8%
Op Margin
+35.6%
Net Debt
$2.64B
Current Ratio
0.77
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data