B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
-9.3% vs current
NVEC
NVEDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$89.00
-20.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
-36.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+26.7
Score
AI commentary
News tone around the May 6, 2026 print is modestly positive because the company reported better Q4 profitability and maintained the dividend, but the reaction profile still looks muted rather than euphoric. The packet anchor shows $88.59 on May 7, 2026, and live pricing checked on May 8, 2026 was about $90.21, suggesting only a mild positive follow-through. Coverage is thin and checked sources did not surface dependable analyst target revisions, so missing revision data should be treated as an evidence gap, not a positive signal.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-15catalystPost-earnings follow-through after Q4/FY26 beat on profitabilityMedium impact
NVE's May 6 earnings release showed Q4 revenue up 5% to $7.65 million and Q4 net income up 27% to $4.93 million ($1.02 diluted EPS), with management calling it the second consecutive quarter of strong revenue and earnings growth; the near-term question is whether the market rewards the stronger profitability despite only 1.8% full-year revenue growth and no formal guidance update. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
2026-05-29eventQuarterly dividend remains intactMedium impact
The board approved another $1.00 per share cash dividend payable May 29, 2026 to holders of record on May 18, 2026, reinforcing NVE's capital-return policy for income-oriented holders even if it is unlikely to drive a major rerating by itself. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
2027-03-31catalystCompleted production expansion could improve FY27 operating leverage and cash conversionHigh impact
NVE's fact sheet says the company completed its production expansion, while the 10-K says fixed-asset purchases should decrease significantly in fiscal 2027 after expansion completion; if demand holds, lower capex after a heavy FY26 equipment spend could help free-cash conversion, though the company did not pair this with explicit growth guidance. [#IR-2026-05-08] [#10-K-2026-05-06]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology