B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NMIH
NMICNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose to $187.9 million from $173.8 million a year earlier, adjusted diluted EPS rose to $1.38 from $1.22, and book value per share excluding investment-portfolio unrealized gains and losses rose 15% year over year to $36.88. Continued insurance-in-force growth and low claims could support higher value [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
A higher mortgage-default or claim rate could reverse Q2's improved 8.3% loss ratio [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Momentum
52
Value
60
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $40.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.88
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d +4.3
Value60 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A higher mortgage-default or claim rate could reverse Q2's improved 8.3% loss ratio [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
- • Growth in new insurance written may not translate into durable premiums if mortgage activity or persistency weakens.
- • Mortgage-credit deterioration, slower new insurance written, or reduced risk-transfer effectiveness could erode underwriting returns.
Catalyst clock
2027-02-28
Claims and loss-ratio durability
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-12.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 51.9 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 52.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.2B
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
75.22M
P/E (TTM)
8.6
P/S (TTM)
4.58
P/FCF (TTM)
8.19
Rev YoY
+8.1%
EPS YoY
+13.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+73.2%
Net Debt
$381.59M
Current Ratio
3.39
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data