B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NMIH
NMICNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-01
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-0.3
Mixed
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+46.1
Score
AI commentary
The substantive company evidence is the SEC-filed Q2 earnings exhibit; supplied headlines are older Q2 coverage. The September 24 stored 'earnings' document is a Zacks article primarily about ACGL, not an official NMIH release. A post-release price reaction and current analyst revisions are unavailable. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment measures are unavailable; zeros above denote missing data, not neutral readings.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-01
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2027-02-28eventClaims and loss-ratio durabilityHigh impact
Q2 claims expense fell to $13.1 million from $20.7 million in Q1, and the loss ratio improved to 8.3% from 13.3%. A reversal as the insured book grows would challenge the earnings case; the monitoring date is an estimate [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
2027-02-28catalystInsured-portfolio growth and new insurance writtenHigh impact
Q2 primary insurance-in-force reached $227.1 billion, up 6% year over year, while new insurance written rose 29% to $16.1 billion. Sustained growth without weaker underwriting could support a rerating; the next measurement date is an estimate, not an announced event [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] [#8-K-2026-07-30].
2027-06-30catalystCapital capacity and shareholder returnsMedium impact
At Q2-end, PMIERs available assets were $3.7 billion versus $2.1 billion of net risk-based required assets. How that headroom is preserved or deployed is a potential longer-term value driver, but no specific capital-return action is established by the supplied release [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-01 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology