NEWT

NewtekOneA

Nasdaq / Financial Services

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$15.50

+13.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$13.50

-1.0% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$11.00

-19.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

Tone after the April 30, 2026 earnings release is mildly constructive but not strong. Primary company materials showed an in-range quarter with strong deposit growth and unchanged 2026 guidance, while third-party follow-up was sparse. Immediate market reaction looked muted rather than euphoric: the May 1, 2026 anchor price was $13.12, and a May 1 MarketBeat report cited only a modest KBW target increase to $13 with a market perform rating. With thin analyst revision evidence at T+3, this remains a cautious monitoring setup instead of a high-conviction rerating call.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-30eventPost-earnings reset keeps 2026 outlook intactMedium impact

1Q26 diluted EPS was $0.43, within management's prior $0.37-$0.47 range, while net interest income rose 23.6% year over year and management said it remains comfortable with 2026 EPS guidance of $2.15-$2.55; the release also introduced a 2027 EPS growth target of 10%, implying $2.40-$2.80. This supports a monitoring view rather than a thesis break, but low coverage means the market may wait for follow-through. [#8-K-2026-04-30]

2026-06-30catalystDeposit-funded lending mix can improve funding flexibilityHigh impact

Newtek said Newtek ALP Holdings paid down to zero two revolvers and that C&I long-amortizing loans are now being originated by Newtek Bank and funded with deposits. If the company can sustain loan growth, securitization execution, and deposit gathering, the funding mix should look better than a warehouse-dependent structure. [#8-K-2026-04-30]

2026-07-31catalystCredit seasoning remains the main watch itemHigh impact

Management said nonperforming loans were roughly stable at about $54.0 million in 1Q26, but also said the bank's portfolio is still climbing the default curve and that reserves are being built for seasoning. If credit costs rise faster than expected, the current earnings and book-value progress could prove less durable. [#8-K-2026-04-30]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology