B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NBTB
NBT BancorpCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.33
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-30
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+26.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+26.0
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+64.9
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mixed-positive: the company reported stronger earnings, NIM expansion, loan growth, capital strength, and a dividend increase, while secondary coverage described a small consensus miss. The stock moved from a reported July 24 close of $52.38 to the RankAlpha July 29 anchor of $54.26, approximately 3.6% higher, but no trusted source cleanly attributes that move to earnings. Post-print analyst target and rating revisions were not confirmed; social coverage is unavailable. [MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-7-27-nbt-bancorp-inc-stock/)
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-30
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-27eventQ2 earnings showed solid operating momentum but limited surpriseMedium impact
The SEC 8-K Exhibit 99.1 filed July 27 reported Q2 net income of $53.0 million, diluted EPS of $1.02, operating EPS of $1.01, NIM of 3.73%, loan growth across business lines, and manageable credit metrics. Zacks reported operating EPS slightly below the $1.02 consensus and revenue below consensus, making the print constructive but not a clear beat. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27] [Zacks](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2961549/nbt-bancorp-nbtb-lags-q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates)
2026-09-15eventDividend increase and ongoing capital returnsMedium impact
NBT approved a third-quarter dividend of $0.40 per share, an 8.1% increase and the fourteenth consecutive year of annual increases. The company also repurchased shares and reported a 12.24% CET1 ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
2026-10-28catalystAsset-quality or margin slippage could cap upsideMedium impact
Nonperforming loans increased to 0.55% of loans from 0.53% in Q1, while sequential NIM expansion was only 1 basis point. A weaker Q3 credit or funding update would challenge the current neutral-to-positive thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-27]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology