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NBTB

NBT BancorpC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 release supports a measured bull case: higher earnings, 3.73% NIM, broad loan growth, stable funding costs, strong capital, and a dividend increase. Tangible book value per share rose to $27.71.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.
What can break
External coverage reported operating EPS of $1.01 versus a $1.02 consensus and revenue below consensus, limiting the earnings surprise. [Zacks](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2961549/nbt-bancorp-nbtb-lags-q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates)
Momentum
53
Value
51
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $53.33 · Bull $56.00 · Bear $46.50Analysis 2026-07-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.83
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +1.3
Value51 · Δ7d -7.5
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • External coverage reported operating EPS of $1.01 versus a $1.02 consensus and revenue below consensus, limiting the earnings surprise. [Zacks](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2961549/nbt-bancorp-nbtb-lags-q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates)
  • • No formal forward guidance or detailed post-print analyst revision set is available in the packet or bounded follow-up search.
  • • The post-print case is less compelling at the current $54.26 anchor: external coverage identified a small adjusted EPS and revenue miss, while the RankAlpha analyst-target median is $53.33.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-27

Q2 earnings showed solid operating momentum but limited surprise

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-5.9
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.5
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 52.6 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 64.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.33
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.77B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
51.96M
P/E (TTM)
14.1
P/S (TTM)
3.36
P/FCF (TTM)
16.67
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
+129.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.4%
Net Debt
$175.4M
Current Ratio
0.08
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data