B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
+44.0% vs current
NATR
Nature's Sunshine ProductsDNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
+15.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
-8.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-
Unavailable
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+64.2
Score
AI commentary
Tone improved after the May 7, 2026 earnings release because Q1 results were strong and guidance held, but the immediate read-through is still mixed. The packet anchor shows a May 7 close of $24.55, while thin post-print coverage and no verified analyst target changes by May 9, 2026 keep this as a monitoring-style follow-up rather than a high-conviction revision story [#8-K-2026-05-07]. Social context was not available in the evidence packet, so it is not used as support for the thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
Coverage is limited for this name. This memo is usable, but confidence is lower and evidence depth is thinner than a standard report.
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-15catalystQ1 beat with full-year guidance maintained keeps post-earnings upside alive but not yet de-riskedHigh impact
Nature's Sunshine reported Q1 2026 net sales of $122.9 million, up 9%, GAAP EPS of $0.29 versus $0.25, adjusted EBITDA of $14.6 million versus $11.0 million, and maintained 2026 guidance for $500-$515 million of net sales and $50-$54 million of adjusted EBITDA. The near-term question is whether investors treat the print as the start of estimate revisions or as a solid quarter already reflected in the stock [#8-K-2026-05-07].
2026-08-06eventNext earnings checkpoint must confirm Q1 momentum is converting into cash generation and sustained guidance credibilityHigh impact
Despite higher earnings, Q1 operating cash flow was negative $1.8 million, capex increased to $2.5 million, and full-year guidance was maintained rather than raised. The next quarterly update is the main validation point for whether sales growth, margin gains, and working-capital discipline are strong enough to keep the story improving [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-07].
2026-12-31catalystDigital, auto-ship, and gross-margin execution could support a steadier re-rating if it persists through 2026High impact
Management said digital engagement remained strong and highlighted consumer acquisition, digital capability expansion, auto-ship subscription adoption, and gross-margin improvement as key parts of its growth plan. Gross margin rose 116 basis points to 73.2%, suggesting the model can expand if volume, mix, and cost savings hold [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology