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MTG

MGIC InvestmentC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong Q2 profitability, higher NIW and insurance in force, excess capital, buybacks, and a higher dividend support the equity case. Q2 book value per share reached $24.27.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Higher seasonal delinquencies in the second half of 2026 could increase claims and loss ratios.
Momentum
64
Value
60
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.50 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $25.50Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.20
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +3.9
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher seasonal delinquencies in the second half of 2026 could increase claims and loss ratios.
  • • Mortgage-origination and purchase activity could weaken, limiting NIW growth.
  • • Delinquency increased to 2.37% from 2.21% a year earlier, management expects seasonal pressure in the second half, and favorable reserve development may not recur.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Mixed Q2 earnings digestion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-7.5
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+1.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 64.1 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.38B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
205.13M
P/E (TTM)
9.5
P/S (TTM)
5.44
P/FCF (TTM)
9.85
Rev YoY
-2.9%
EPS YoY
+6.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+77.0%
Net Debt
$270.62M
Current Ratio
3.02
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data