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MPC

Marathon PetroleumC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 result materially improved earnings visibility, with strong refining execution, resilient midstream EBITDA, substantial capital return, and a stated MPLX distribution-growth framework. Stored Zacks context, not a company release, also showed a 61.2% pre-print EPS-estimate increase.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Crack-spread and refined-product-demand volatility could reverse the Q2 earnings uplift.
Momentum
97
Value
57
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $323.00 · Bull $360.00 · Bear $245.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $475.65
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d -0.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment38 · Δ7d +4.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Crack-spread and refined-product-demand volatility could reverse the Q2 earnings uplift.
  • • Higher refining margins may normalize after an unusually strong quarter.
  • • The earnings surge is highly exposed to refining crack spreads and may normalize.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Strong Q2 2026 earnings reset

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+1.5
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
38
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
-10.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 97.2 / Value 57.3 / Sentiment 38.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$323.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$128.4B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
280.83M
P/E (TTM)
18.7
P/S (TTM)
0.39
P/FCF (TTM)
16.73
Rev YoY
+53.1%
EPS YoY
+347.2%
Gross Margin
+10.7%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$30.69B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data