RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

MPC

Marathon PetroleumC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q2 result materially improved earnings visibility, with strong refining execution, resilient midstream EBITDA, substantial capital return, and a stated MPLX distribution-growth framework. Stored Zacks context, not a company release, also showed a 61.2% pre-print EPS-estimate increase.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Crack-spread and refined-product-demand volatility could reverse the Q2 earnings uplift.
Momentum
94
Value
62
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $323.00 · Bull $360.00 · Bear $245.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $351.65
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +2.3
Value62 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Crack-spread and refined-product-demand volatility could reverse the Q2 earnings uplift.
  • • Higher refining margins may normalize after an unusually strong quarter.
  • • The earnings surge is highly exposed to refining crack spreads and may normalize.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Strong Q2 2026 earnings reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+1.6
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+8.9
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-6.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 93.7 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 50.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$323.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$100.59B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
280.83M
P/E (TTM)
18.7
P/S (TTM)
0.39
P/FCF (TTM)
16.73
Rev YoY
+53.1%
EPS YoY
+347.2%
Gross Margin
+10.7%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$30.69B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data