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MNDY

monday.comD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
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Current thesis
The primary-source bull case is that Q1 showed durable enterprise traction rather than just a one-quarter beat: customers above $50K ARR grew 32%, above $100K ARR grew 39%, above $500K ARR grew 74%, and RPO grew 33% y/y, while the company still posted record profitability and positive cash generation [#6K-2026-05-11]. The AI Work Platform launch adds a real product-cycle lever if consumption pricing expands wallet share across work management, CRM, service, and dev [#PR-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
Momentum
85
Value
55
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $106.77
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d +11.9
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -9.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
  • • Management is shifting to a seats-plus-credits consumption model, which can create adoption friction and reduce near-term forecasting clarity even if the long-term opportunity is attractive.
  • • The bear case is that guidance still points to moderated growth, the Q2 guide implies only 18%-19% y/y revenue growth, and post-print analyst reaction was mixed rather than uniformly bullish.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-11

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise improved the near-term setup

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
85
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+11.9
Δ21d
+53.6
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
33
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.6
Δ21d
-28.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 85.2 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 32.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$4.21B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
42.27M
P/E (TTM)
116.4
P/S (TTM)
6.31
P/FCF (TTM)
22.27
Rev YoY
+21.9%
EPS YoY
+163.7%
Gross Margin
+88.7%
Op Margin
+2.9%
Net Debt
-$1.5B
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data