B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MNDY
monday.comCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary-source bull case is that Q1 showed durable enterprise traction rather than just a one-quarter beat: customers above $50K ARR grew 32%, above $100K ARR grew 39%, above $500K ARR grew 74%, and RPO grew 33% y/y, while the company still posted record profitability and positive cash generation [#6K-2026-05-11]. The AI Work Platform launch adds a real product-cycle lever if consumption pricing expands wallet share across work management, CRM, service, and dev [#PR-2026-05-06].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.0.
What can break
Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
Momentum
44
Value
57
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-05-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $106.45
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d -7.8
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +20.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
- • Management is shifting to a seats-plus-credits consumption model, which can create adoption friction and reduce near-term forecasting clarity even if the long-term opportunity is attractive.
- • The bear case is that guidance still points to moderated growth, the Q2 guide implies only 18%-19% y/y revenue growth, and post-print analyst reaction was mixed rather than uniformly bullish.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-11
Q1 2026 beat-and-raise improved the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.8
Δ21d
-21.0
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.0
Δ21d
+7.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 44.3 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 56.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.52B
Beta
1.26
Shares Out
42.27M
P/E (TTM)
116.4
P/S (TTM)
6.31
P/FCF (TTM)
22.27
Rev YoY
+21.9%
EPS YoY
+163.7%
Gross Margin
+88.7%
Op Margin
+2.9%
Net Debt
-$1.5B
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data