B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$315.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
MKSI
MKSDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: A durable rebound in semiconductor capex, successful customer qualifications, and margin leverage lift revenue and EPS above consensus, supporting a re-rating toward the analyst high range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.9.
What can break
Large-customer concentration and order volatility
Momentum
23
Value
59
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $239.81 · Bull $315.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-02-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $417.57
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d +1.3
Value59 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -4.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Large-customer concentration and order volatility
- • Margin compression from pricing or execution issues
- • Bear case: Prolonged capex weakness, order deferrals or cancellations, and margin compression drive revenue and cash-flow shortfalls, pushing the stock toward the low end of analyst ranges and materially below current levels.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-20
Quarterly earnings release and guidance update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
+3.6
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
+5.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 22.7 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 45.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-19. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$239.81
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$21.69B
Beta
1.93
Shares Out
67.62M
P/E (TTM)
42.7
P/S (TTM)
3.09
P/FCF (TTM)
25.13
Rev YoY
+28.3%
EPS YoY
+161.7%
Gross Margin
+41.2%
Op Margin
+16.7%
Net Debt
$3.77B
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data