B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MHO
M/I HomesBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record $3.3 billion of equity, $130 book value per share and substantial liquidity may help M/I withstand a weak cycle; a recovery in order pace or lower buydown costs could support a rerating. These are conditional outcomes, not company guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.3.
What can break
Backlog units were down 7% and backlog value down 9% year over year, limiting near-term delivery visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
20
Value
62
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $130.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $156.67
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -2.5
Value62 · Δ7d -2.4
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -7.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog units were down 7% and backlog value down 9% year over year, limiting near-term delivery visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC earnings exhibit
- • Higher lot and incentive costs could prolong gross-margin compression; Q3 included $4.7 million of pretax inventory charges. [#10-Q-2026-10-23] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC 10-Q
- • Q3 pretax income fell 38%, backlog value fell 9%, and incentives and lot costs pressured profitability.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-20
Post-earnings estimate and target revisions
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-17.0
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 19.8 / Value 62.0 / Sentiment 66.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.16B
Beta
1.78
Shares Out
25.03M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
13.77
Rev YoY
-7.9%
EPS YoY
-31.8%
Gross Margin
+21.6%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$350.85M
Current Ratio
7.71
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data