B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MHO
M/I HomesANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record contracts, lower cancellations, strong liquidity, buybacks, and management's stated confidence in a solid 2026 support a constructive medium-term setup if backlog conversion and margins stabilize. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.0.
What can break
Inventory charges and lower deliveries could keep earnings below prior-year levels.
Momentum
68
Value
59
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $156.00 · Bull $175.00 · Bear $125.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $170.67
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -1.0
Value59 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +9.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory charges and lower deliveries could keep earnings below prior-year levels.
- • Mortgage rates, affordability, and required rate buydowns could continue to pressure demand and gross margin.
- • The earnings decline was substantial: lower deliveries, revenue, pretax income, EPS, and backlog outweighed the contract-growth signal.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-29
Q2 2026 results were operationally mixed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+13.7
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-5.8
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.0
Δ21d
+6.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 67.6 / Value 59.0 / Sentiment 73.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$156.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.82B
Beta
1.78
Shares Out
25.28M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
13.77
Rev YoY
-7.9%
EPS YoY
-31.8%
Gross Margin
+21.6%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$350.85M
Current Ratio
7.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data