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MHO

M/I HomesB
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record $3.3 billion of equity, $130 book value per share and substantial liquidity may help M/I withstand a weak cycle; a recovery in order pace or lower buydown costs could support a rerating. These are conditional outcomes, not company guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Backlog units were down 7% and backlog value down 9% year over year, limiting near-term delivery visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
20
Value
63
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $130.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $156.67
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -9.3
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -21.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog units were down 7% and backlog value down 9% year over year, limiting near-term delivery visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Higher lot and incentive costs could prolong gross-margin compression; Q3 included $4.7 million of pretax inventory charges. [#10-Q-2026-10-23] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21] SEC 10-Q
  • • Q3 pretax income fell 38%, backlog value fell 9%, and incentives and lot costs pressured profitability.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20

Post-earnings estimate and target revisions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-9.3
Δ21d
-23.4
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.2
Δ21d
-34.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 20.1 / Value 62.9 / Sentiment 58.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.13B
Beta
1.78
Shares Out
25.28M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
13.77
Rev YoY
-7.9%
EPS YoY
-31.8%
Gross Margin
+21.6%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$350.85M
Current Ratio
7.71
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data