B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MARA
MARAFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-03
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+40.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+37.4
Score
AI commentary
News tone is mixed-to-negative: the Q2 company filing confirms a substantial earnings deterioration despite hashrate growth, while stored secondary coverage reports a sharp recent share-price reset. No reliable analyst target-change, estimate-revision, or consensus-surprise dataset is available. Social coverage is unavailable, so confidence remains limited despite strong filing evidence. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-03
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-06eventQ2 earnings reset the near-term thesisHigh impact
Q2 2026 revenue was $174.9 million, down 27% year over year; net loss was $611.3 million and adjusted EBITDA was negative $360.9 million. Hashrate growth and 2,422 BTC mined provided operating positives, but consensus-surprise data is unavailable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
2026-09-30catalystAI/HPC infrastructure conversion remains option valueHigh impact
The Starwood partnership was described as supporting approximately 1 GW of near-term IT capacity with a pathway above 2.5 GW, but disclosed tenants, utilization, capex cadence, and contracted economics remain limited. A rerating therefore requires harder operating proof. [#PR-2026-02-26-Starwood]
2026-12-02catalystBitcoin and treasury volatility remain dominant driversHigh impact
MARA held 35,577 BTC at June 30, 2026, including 9,270 BTC loaned or pledged as collateral, produced 2,422 BTC, and sold 2,213 BTC in Q2. Purchased energy cost per BTC rose to $38,690 from $33,735, leaving earnings and liquidity highly sensitive to bitcoin prices and operating costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology