MA

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when MasterCard (MA) reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 29. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This processor of debit and credit card payments is expected to post quarterly earnings of $5.14 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +17.4%. Revenues are expected to be $9.63 billion, up 12% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.09% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only. A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). For MasterCard, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.11%. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2. So, this combination indicates that MasterCard will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number. For the last reported quarter, it was expected that MasterCard would post earnings of $4.77 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.04, delivering a surprise of +5.66%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times. An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. MasterCard appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Among the stocks in the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry, MasterCard (MA), is soon expected to post earnings of $5.14 per share for the quarter ended September 2026. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +17.4%. This quarter's revenue is expected to be $9.63 billion, up 12% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for MasterCard has been revised 0.1% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.11%. This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggests that MasterCard will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

- Key insight: Visa and Mastercard both released several AI and blockchain-related products in recent days. - What's at stake: The credit card companies announce third-quarter earnings next week, and investors will be looking at revenue sources such as value-added non-payment services. With card-issuing banks pressured to build strategies for agentic commerce and digital assets, Visa and Mastercard are expanding their abilities to sell into these trends. Both card brands have released services in the past few days, and in the case of Visa, there were rumors of a potential $2.5 billion deal to acquire cryptocurrency technology firm Fireblocks. Visa said it does not comment on rumors or speculation. "We are aware of the rumors about a possible acquisition of Fireblocks by Visa. This is news to us, and not true," a Fireblocks spokesperson said in an email. Even before talk of a Fireblocks acquisition, Visa recently released several tools designed for agentic commerce and digital assets. Earlier this week, the card company introduced services for corporate payments, including new analytics for supplier spending, virtual-card fraud prevention, and a live pilot enabling trusted AI agents to complete B2B invoice payments. "The B2B world is filled with very routine manual processes that are just begging for automation," Darren Parslow, global head of Visa Commercial Solutions, told American Banker. The new analytics, called SESA 2.0, use AI to produce spend analysis and to help businesses identify high-potential supplier opportunities. Another product, Visa Commercial Fraud Solutions, helps issuers and businesses validate suppliers, authenticate virtual-card payment activity and apply controls before a payment is approved. "What we're really trying to do is build the ecosystem for agentic commerce," Parslow said. An additional initiative, a pilot with Billtrust, enables trusted AI agents to initiate and help complete approved invoice payments through supplier portals, using Visa Intelligent Commerce and Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol. "What's great about this pilot is it addresses both sides, the buyers and suppliers, for a fully automated payment from invoice approval to supplier acceptance," Parslow said. On the digital asset front, Visa this week took its Visa Direct stablecoin project out of pilot testing. In the initial deployment, Inyo Global, a Visa Direct processor that has banks, fintechs and payment companies among its clients, is supporting stablecoin processing for Visa Direct clients and partners. These businesses will have the option to prefund cross-border payouts through Visa Direct with USDC in near real time, rather than relying solely on traditional funding windows. "The next chapter for stablecoins is adoption," said Vira Platonova, global head of Visa Direct, in a release. Visa's digital asset strategy could get a boost if it were to acquire Fireblocks, which sells institutional custody, stablecoin settlement and tokenization, among other services. Visa and Mastercard have both made stablecoin support a key pillar of their value-added services strategies — or their quest to draw revenue from sources beyond card payments. Mastercard's moves over the past week include launching Global Money Platform with BVNK, with Nuvei, Marqeta, Ontop and Beem among the first users. The platform enables banks, fintechs and businesses to use software or an application programming interface to support traditional currency and stablecoins. Mastercard Move supports local bank payouts, with more than 40 currencies planned to be available by 2017. Mastercard closed a $1.8 billion deal to acquire digital asset technology firm BVNK in August, supplying Mastercard with tools to scale digital assets — a goal Visa could also address if it acquired Fireblocks. "Stablecoins used to be just about powering crypto trading. It's now becoming a payment instrument and a way to store value as well," Raj Dhamodharan, executive vice president of blockchain and digital asset products at Mastercard, told American Banker. Mastercard in recent days also launched Stablecoin Security, a product designed to assess fraud and other criminal risk before funds move from traditional rails to blockchain, and a demonstration of Agent Pay for Machines. This product enables AI agents to autonomously locate and pay for digital services based on rules set by humans. The move to agentic commerce builds on top of earlier moves the card network made to prepare for AI payments, including agentic AI protocols. "With a lot of agentic commerce options, you can use these cards on the street today, they can be paired with a trusted agent," Dhamodharan said. Visa reports earnings on Tuesday after the market closes, while Mastercard reports Thursday before the opening. Mastercard's stock is up about 11% since late October 2025; while Visa's stock is up about 20%. Mastercard's most recent earnings report beat analysts' expectations, as did Visa's earnings. In a research note, KeyBanc Capital Markets notes that Visa and Mastercard's work in agentic commerce positions the card networks well to offer services within guidance for agentic commerce that a group of large banks issued earlier this year. Read more: - As fintechs nab bank charters, what's happening to BaaS? - Overheated data center knocked 23 credit unions offline - Chris Britt still says banking is broken, but Chime can fix it - Credit unions bulk up a business that banks long dominated "The [bank guidance] paper calls for secure and auditable methods to enter payment credentials and authorize purchase intents, and states unsafe practices should be discouraged and, where possible, prohibited naming raw card credential entry into websites, prioritizing payment methods with lower protections, and non-compliance with payment scheme rules," KeyBanc's analysts said. "In our view, an issuer consortium arguing for tokenized credentials and scheme rule enforcement supports the network trust and tokenization thesis we have outlined previously, and aligns with the direction of Visa Intelligent Commerce and Mastercard Agent Pay." More broadly, analysts from FT Partners said payment growth should remain strong for both Visa and Mastercard during the third quarter, overcoming any economic pressure. "The [messaging] on the health of the U.S. consumer should remain upbeat. Card volume growth in the third quarter from the major issuing banks was in-line with the second quarter, with continued strength across debit and credit, implying no change in mix between discretionary and non-discretionary spend," FT Partners analysts said in a research note.

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering MasterCard (MA), which belongs to the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry. When looking at the last two reports, this processor of debit and credit card payments has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 5.10%, on average, in the last two quarters. For the most recent quarter, MasterCard was expected to post earnings of $4.77 per share, but it reported $5.04 per share instead, representing a surprise of 5.66%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $4.4 per share, while it actually produced $4.6 per share, a surprise of 4.55%. Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for MasterCard lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank. Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. MasterCard currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.02%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on October 29, 2026. Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric. Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, but that may not be the sole basis for their stocks moving higher. On the other hand, some stocks may hold their ground even if they end up missing the consensus estimate. Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

- Current Price: $399.75 - Target Price (Mid): ~$680 - Street Target: ~$422 - Potential Total Return: ~70% - Annualized IRR: ~14% / year Visa (V) hit a record high on October 15, touching $403.21 intraday before closing at $399.75, up 11.2% from its September 30 close of $359.33. Over the same stretch, the Street's NTM normalized EPS estimate held at around $14.45, and fiscal 2027 revenue estimates moved 0.02%. The October gain came from a higher multiple, not higher expectations. Fiscal fourth-quarter results, due after the close on October 27 according to Visa's investor relations materials, have to justify the new price. Visa's NTM P/E stood at about 28x on October 15, up from about 25x on September 30 and about 23x at the end of March. The run was not Visa's alone: Mastercard (MA) also set record highs, and StockCharts noted on October 14 that it had risen eight straight sessions, calling the cause of both rallies up for debate. The mean Street target of around $422 sits about 5% above the October 15 close, from 27 Buy, 9 Outperform, 3 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 No Opinion, and no Sell ratings. BMO raised its target to $425 from $405 on October 15 and kept an Outperform rating, as reported by StockTwits. That sits just above the Street mean, and BMO tied its upside to value-added services growth holding in the high 20% range. The last print shows why a beat may not be enough. Visa topped fiscal Q3 adjusted EPS estimates ($3.32 versus $3.23) on 14.36% revenue growth, though GAAP EPS of $2.97 trailed the $3.18 estimate after a $563 million charge tied to job cuts. Shares moved 0.58% the next session. On October 13, the People's Bank of China approved Visa's Application to Prepare a domestic bankcard clearing business. The approval allows preparation, not operation, and Visa disclosed no launch timeline. On October 15, Visa moved Visa Direct's stablecoin prefunding into commercial deployment, with processor Inyo Global as the first enabler. Businesses on Inyo's platform can fund cross-border payouts with USDC in near real time. Visa disclosed no volume or revenue figures. The launch fits the use case CEO Ryan McInerney described at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 8, when he said, "we are big believers in the product market fit for stablecoins in a couple of different areas." He named dollar access in roughly 50 countries plus cross-border remittances and B2B payments, and noted Visa Direct reaches 18 billion endpoints. Neither event has moved consensus, and neither is a confirmed driver of the rally, which began before October 13. - Current Price: $399.75 - Target Price (Mid): ~$680 - Potential Total Return: ~70% - Annualized IRR: ~14% / year The TIKR model's mid case values Visa at around $680 by September 30, 2030, roughly a 70% total return, or about 14% a year over four years. Its inputs sit below recent results: about 10% annual revenue growth and net margins near 54% over 2025 to 2035, against the 11.3% revenue growth and 56.8% net margin the model shows for the past year, with the P/E drifting about 1% lower each year. The primary risk is the multiple. Applying the March 31 NTM P/E of about 23x to the October 15 NTM EPS estimate of around $14.45 implies about $330, matching the Street's low target. The high case assumes growth and margins near past-year levels, about 11% and 57% over the same 2025 to 2035 span. Consensus calls for around $12.1 billion in fiscal Q4 revenue and around $3.43 in adjusted EPS, but the deciding number is fiscal 2027, where the Street expects revenue of around $50.8 billion. A fiscal 2027 outlook that implies revenue above that level gives a 28x multiple new support. One that only matches it leaves the stock about 5% from a Street target it has nearly caught. TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Visa could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use. Analyze Visa Inc. on TIKR Free →

American Express Company AXP is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 23, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings is currently pegged at $4.47 per share, and the same for revenues is pinned at $20.13 billion. The third-quarter earnings estimate witnessed two downward revisions over the past seven days against no upward movements. The bottom-line prediction indicates a year-over-year increase of 8%. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Express' revenues is pegged at $79.47 billion, implying a rise of 10% year over year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for full-year EPS is pegged at $17.65, implying growth of 14.8% on a year-over-year basis. AXP beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 3.3%. American Express Company price-eps-surprise | American Express Company Quote Our proven model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here. AXP has an Earnings ESP of -0.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. American Express is expected to see a rise in network volumes during the third quarter, likely attributable to the resilient consumer spending of its premium customer base, which is less impacted by economic volatility. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total network volumes indicates 8.6% year-over-year growth from $479.20 billion. Discount revenues, a key source of AXP's top line, are expected to have benefited from rising network volumes. The consensus mark for third-quarter Discount revenues indicates 8% year-over-year growth. Billed businesses in U.S. Consumer Services and Commercial Services are expected to witness growth of 9.6% and 3.5% year over year, respectively. Cards-in-force are expected to increase in the quarter on the back of expanding product offerings and stronger market penetration. The consensus projection for third-quarter total cards-in-force indicates 3.8% year-over-year growth. The estimate for the Average fee per card also implies a 12.3% year-over-year increase. AXP's interest income, another major revenue contributor, is expected to rise on higher loan receivables. The estimate for net interest income implies an upside of 11% from the year-ago reported figure. The above factors are expected to support year-over-year growth in the quarter to be reported. However, higher customer engagement and operating costs could limit the upside. Third-quarter client engagement costs are expected to have increased due to expanding Card Member spending and higher usage of travel and lifestyle-related benefits. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax income from Commercial Services indicates a 12.8% decline, while pre-tax income from U.S. Consumer Services indicates a 9% year-over-year decrease. AXP stock has declined 9.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry's fall of 27.2%. During this time, Visa Inc. V has gained 16.9%, and Mastercard Incorporated MA has risen 9.8%. The S&P 500 Index has climbed 16.7% during the same period. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Now, let's look at the value American Express offers investors at current levels. Currently, AXP is trading at 15.93X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry's average of 14.61X, marking it overvalued. However, it is much cheaper compared to its peers like Visa and Mastercard, which are valued at 22.90X and 25.44X F12M P/E, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research AXP presents a balanced investment case, supported by resilient spending among affluent consumers, expanding card adoption and rising interest income. Its integrated payments model, strong brand recognition and growing appeal among younger consumers strengthen its competitive position. Premium offerings, travel-related benefits and disciplined capital management further support long-term growth prospects. However, rising customer engagement expenses, elevated credit provisions and increasing debt levels remain concerns. Higher operating costs could constrain profitability despite improving business volumes. Moreover, AXP's premium valuation relative to the industry may limit near-term upside, particularly amid prevailing economic uncertainties. Although the stock has demonstrated relative resilience against its industry, these challenges warrant a cautious approach. Existing investors may consider retaining their positions, while prospective investors could await more attractive entry points or clearer signs of margin improvement and sustainable earnings growth. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report American Express Company (AXP) : Free Stock Analysis Report Mastercard Incorporated (MA) : Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

With a market cap of $521.3 billion, Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is a global technology company in the payments industry, operating across more than 220 countries and territories to connect economies and empower people. Through secure, simple, smart, and accessible digital payment solutions, innovative technology, and strategic partnerships, the company helps individuals, businesses, and governments achieve their full potential while fostering a resilient and inclusive economy. The Purchase, New York-based company is set to announce its fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, Oct. 29. Ahead of this event, analysts forecast MA to report an adjusted EPS of $5.13, a rise of 17.1% from $4.38 in the year-ago quarter. It has exceeded Wall Street's earnings estimates in the last four quarters. - Elon Musk Sets the Record Straight on Terafab. What It Means for Intel, TSMC, and SpaceX Stocks. - Why Super Micro Stock Is Heading to $60 - Dave Ramsey Says He'd 'Rather Have $5,000 on a Credit Card Than a Mortgage You Can't Afford,' Warns to Sell If You're Paying $2,090 a Month on $4,200 Income - Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! For fiscal 2026, analysts expect Mastercard Incorporated to post an adjusted EPS of $19.90, up nearly 17% from $17.01 in fiscal 2025. Shares of Mastercard Incorporated have risen 7.9% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 17.2% gain. However, the stock has outpaced the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLF) 4.4% return over the same period. Mastercard Incorporated shares rose 2.5% on Jul. 30 because the company reported strong Q2 2026 results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted EPS of $5.04 and revenue of $9.3 billion (up 14%). Investors were encouraged by robust transaction activity, as gross dollar volume increased 8% to $2.9 trillion, cross-border volumes rose 12%, and value-added services and solutions revenue grew 20%. The results signaled that consumer spending remained resilient, with strong spending by higher-income households and continued demand for travel, entertainment, fraud detection, cybersecurity, and data services supporting Mastercard's growth outlook. Analysts' consensus view on MA stock is bullish, with a "Strong Buy" rating overall. Among 42 analysts covering the stock, 34 recommend "Strong Buy," four "Moderate Buys," and four suggest "Hold." This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, with 33 analysts suggesting a "Strong Buy." The average analyst price target for Mastercard Incorporated is $667.37, suggesting a potential upside of 10.8% from current levels. On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

- Current Price: $589.14 - Target Price (Mid): ~$1,060 - Street Target: ~$667 - Potential Total Return: ~81% - Annualized IRR: ~15% / year Mastercard (MA) drew opposite target moves from the same firm within ten weeks. Baird raised its target to $680 from $660 on July 7, then cut it back to $660 on July 31, the day after Mastercard beat second-quarter estimates. On October 9, Baird raised it to $710. Shares closed up 2.50% that day at $589.14, about 2% below the top of their 52-week range, $601.23. No single catalyst for the move was confirmed. Baird's $710 sits about 6% above TIKR's Street mean of around $667, a figure unchanged since September 30, and about 21% above the October 9 close. Not every firm is moving up: Rothschild & Co Redburn trimmed its target to $688 from $710 on September 2 and kept a Buy rating. Mastercard has scheduled third-quarter results for October 29, with materials to be posted in its investor relations materials. Mastercard trades at a P/E ratio of around 28 on next-twelve-months estimates, down from around 32 on September 30, 2025, even though the price rose to $589.14 from $568.81. Expected earnings for the following 12 months grew faster than the stock, partly because the forecast window rolled forward a year. On that measure, a buyer on October 9 paid less per dollar of expected profit than a buyer on September 30, 2025. Consensus calls for third-quarter revenue of about $9.64 billion, up around 12% from $8,602 million a year earlier. That compares with 14.07% reported growth in the second quarter. However, Mastercard's second-quarter release put that quarter's currency-neutral growth at 12%, so part of the gap between the quarters depends on currency, not only spending. Mastercard has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last five quarters, though by only 0.30% to 2.19%. Ling Hai, Mastercard's Chief Financial Officer since August 3, broke down cross-border growth at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 10. Beyond travel, he cited card-not-present spending (online and card-on-file purchases), which now includes recurring AI subscriptions such as "my subscription to Perplexity." He also pointed to crypto purchases out of Venezuela and transfers into Revolut and Wise wallets. Travel took a hit from the Middle East war in April, but Hai said the year-to-date impact was much less negative than expected. Canadians are visiting the U.S. less and Europe more, and Europeans are heading to Asia off-season. Overall, he said, "it's more of a shift in terms of cross-border travel." Growth also has a price. Hai said Mastercard sometimes has to "go a little deeper in terms of price and economics to win a major deal," and deal incentives are booked against revenue. Stablecoins are a smaller, newer thread. Mastercard is one of five founding partners behind Open USD, a dollar stablecoin issued by Bridge that went live on September 30. Businesses canmint and redeem it through Mastercard's BVNK, Stripe, and Visa. On September 10, before the launch, Hai said BVNK's capability "will be very, very relevant" to the venture, while noting stablecoins "may just be a percent of the payment flows." Visa (V), another founding partner,reports on October 27 after the close, two days before Mastercard. - Current Price: $589.14 - Target Price (Mid): ~$1,060 - Potential Total Return: ~81% - Annualized IRR: ~15% / year TIKR's mid-case scenario reaches around $1,060 by December 31, 2030, an ~81% total return, or ~15% a year, from $589.14. It is a scenario built on assumptions, not a price forecast. For reference, Street estimates, which are separate from the model's inputs, put normalized EPS at about $23 in 2027, up from $17.01 in 2025, with EBIT margins around 60%. Upside comes from services, which Hai said make up almost 40% of net revenue, and from tokenization, which he said Mastercard can now "price for the value that we deliver to the ecosystem." The downside comes if deeper deal pricing slows net revenue and growth stalls near 12%, leaving returns short of the mid case. October 29 turns on whether revenue clears the roughly 12% consensus. Revenue well above about $9.64 billion, with EBIT above the roughly $5.80 billion analysts expect, would make Baird's October raise look well timed. A print below both would make the July cut look like the better call. TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR's valuation model and see what Mastercard could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It's free to use. Analyze Mastercard on TIKR Free →

Financial technology companies are set to report mixed quarterly results, with Visa (V) and Fiserv (FISV) expected to beat earnings estimates as Mastercard (MA) and PayPal (PYPL) report in-line financials, Oppenheimer said in a note Thursday. Visa will likely post fiscal fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.46 compared to consensus of $3.44 while Fiserv's EPS is expected to fall 16% year over year to $1.72, $0.01 above Wall Street's estimate, according to the note. The brokerage models Mastercard's and PayPal's non-GAAP EPS in line with analysts' expectations of $5.15 and $1.31, respectively. For Block (XYZ), Oppenheimer projects third-quarter gross profit to rise 20% year over year to $3.19 billion, above consensus of $3.15 billion. Corpay (CPAY) will likely post EPS of $7.26, beating the Street estimate of $7.18. The firm expects Affirm (AFRM) to post diluted EPS of $0.33, missing analysts' estimate of $0.37. Global Payments (GPN) and Western Union's (WU) EPS will match consensus expectations, the note showed. "We continue to favor Visa, Mastercard, Block, Affirm, and Toast (TOST) given their strong competitive moats, exposure to secular growth trends, and attractive growth profiles," Oppenheimer analysts, including Rayna Kumar, said. Visa and Mastercard will outperform the revenue consensus driven by growth in volumes, while PayPal will miss Wall Street's projections due to a lower transaction take rate, Oppenheimer added. The brokerage models Visa's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue at $12.16 billion, above the Street's $12.09 billion estimate, and expects Mastercard's revenue to reach $9.61 billion, slightly exceeding consensus of $9.58 billion. Meanwhile, PayPal's third-quarter revenue is projected at $8.68 billion, below the $8.72 billion Street expectation. Additionally, Oppenheimer expects revenue for Fiserv and Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) to match Street consensus, while Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and Western Union (WU) are modeled to fall short of analysts' projections. The brokerage upgraded its rating on Global Payments' stock to outperform from perform with a $115 price target, citing a derisked 2026 earnings outlook, potential free cash flow acceleration in 2027, and stable consumer spending trends supporting mid-single-digit revenue growth. Oppenheimer downgraded its rating on Fiserv's shares to perform from outperform due to ongoing uncertainty around future sales and earnings growth. "Given the company's execution missteps and repeated estimate revisions over the past two years, we remain somewhat cautious on the degree of acceleration embedded in the outlook," the firm said.

- Recent analyst reports highlighted that EVERTEC, now carrying a Zacks Rank #2 rating with an A grade for Value, has seen its full-year earnings consensus raised by 5.6% over the last 90 days as valuation metrics such as forward P/E and PEG compare favorably with sector peers. - This combination of upgraded earnings expectations and relatively low valuation multiples versus competitors like MasterCard has drawn attention to EVERTEC as a potentially undervalued payments and fintech services provider in the Business Services industry. - We will now examine how EVERTEC's upgraded earnings outlook, underscored by recent consensus estimate revisions, reshapes the company's existing investment narrative. AI is about to change healthcare. These 34 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early. To own EVERTEC, you need to believe in its role as a scaled payments and fintech provider across Puerto Rico and Latin America, able to balance growth investments with earnings quality. The recent Zacks Rank #2 rating and 5.6% upgrade to full year earnings estimates support that thesis but do not fundamentally change the near term picture, where execution on Latin America expansion is a key catalyst and renewed cybersecurity issues remain a major risk. Among recent announcements, the raised 2026 revenue and EPS guidance stands out as most relevant to the improved earnings consensus. Management now expects US$1,085 million to US$1,095 million of revenue, up from prior guidance, which aligns with analysts revising earnings estimates higher. How effectively EVERTEC turns that higher revenue outlook into sustained margin performance and cash generation, while managing acquisition integration and cyber risk, will be central to the stock's narrative. Yet investors should also weigh how the recent cybersecurity incident could affect client trust and revenue resilience if... Read the full narrative on EVERTEC (it's free!) EVERTEC's narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $230.2 million earnings by 2029. This requires 10.2% yearly revenue growth and a $132.6 million earnings increase from $97.6 million today. Uncover how EVERTEC's forecasts yield a $35.60 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price. Some of the lowest ranked analysts were assuming revenue of about US$1.3 billion and earnings of roughly US$204 million by 2029, which is much more cautious than consensus. If you are comparing that to the recent earnings upgrades, you are really weighing a more pessimistic view of margin pressure against the possibility that the latest estimate revisions could eventually lift those conservative forecasts. Explore 4 other fair value estimates on EVERTEC - why the stock might be worth as much as 59% more than the current price! Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts. - A great starting point for your EVERTEC research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. - Our free EVERTEC research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate EVERTEC's overall financial health at a glance. Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does: - Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 33 stocks are leading the charge. - Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 92 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow. - This technology could replace computers: discover 24 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include EVTC. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

Are quantum computers still years away from breaking modern encryption at scale? Or is Q-Day almost here? Regardless of the answer, Governments are no longer waiting. On Friday, BeInCrypto led the regulatory discussion on Quantum risks at the UN Headquarters during the Government Blockchain Association's Future of Money, Governance and the Law summit. But why now? Because the US National Security Agency announced a major shift toward post-quantum cryptography. From 2027, new commercial national-security systems must support quantum-resistant algorithms. Incompatible systems will be phased out by 2030. The fear is already here: attackers can steal encrypted data today and wait for future quantum machines to crack it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqnAlVdpZO8&t=147s Brian McGleenon spoke with IRS Chief Risk and Control Officer Dottie Romo, UN Joint Staff Pension Fund Deputy Chief Executive Dino Cataldo Dell'Accio, and Mastercard's Julius Moye. Dell'Accio revealed that quantum migration is already a live issue for the UN pension fund's blockchain-based proof-of-life system, serving roughly 80,000 beneficiaries across 190 countries. We have been in production for five years. The concern now is what happens to information already written to a blockchain if today's cryptography becomes vulnerable." The fund is exploring a post-quantum-resistant blockchain and ways to re-encrypt and publicly anchor historical records. His key warning: there may be no clean "Q-Day" when institutions simply upgrade and move on. There is no such a day as a Y2K in quantum. Cryptography will require continuous monitoring as threats evolve." The NSA calls this "harvest now, decrypt later." NIST is already urging organizations to migrate to finalized post-quantum standards rather than wait for powerful quantum computers to arrive. Dell'Accio flagged another problem. Quantum-safe cryptographic keys can be much larger, meaning existing firewalls, network hardware and software may need upgrades too. IRS Officer Dottie Romo ended with a broader warning about regulation. "Right now we're reviewing things at a very traditional pace," Romo said. "That's not going to be sustainable." Quantum may still be ahead of us. The race to protect the financial system has already started. Read the Original story Quantum Discussion at UN Headquarters: How are Financial Systems Preparing? by Mohammad Shahid at beincrypto.com