B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
+28.6% vs current
LPX
Louisiana-PacificDNYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
+13.7% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
-16.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+20.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.1
Positive
Pulse
+16.6
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+59.0
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings tone is mixed rather than clearly positive: company materials showed results at or above guided ranges, but trusted follow-up coverage emphasized an EPS beat against softer revenue and cautious outlook framing. Immediate market-reaction coverage pointed to a negative or muted stock response after the release, which fits the May 7 anchor price context. Analyst revision visibility was still thin in the checked evidence by May 8, 2026, so confidence should stay moderate rather than high.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-06eventQ1 earnings reset the setup but preserved liquidity and full-year guidanceMedium impact
LP reported Q1 net sales of $574 million, adjusted EBITDA of $82 million, and total liquidity of about $900 million, while guiding FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $345-$360 million; the mixed print keeps the stock in a monitoring posture rather than breaking the thesis outright. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
2026-05-15catalystPost-earnings estimate and target revisions should clarify whether the earnings beat can offset weak volume and OSB pressureMedium impact
Trusted follow-up coverage showed EPS above expectations but a softer revenue/guidance read-through, while clear post-print analyst target revisions were still limited in the checked evidence as of May 8, 2026; that keeps near-term direction dependent on revision flow rather than the headline beat alone.
2026-12-31catalystSiding pricing and mix must keep offsetting volume pressure while OSB avoids a deeper troughHigh impact
Management said Siding prices were up 9% but shipments fell 18%, and FY2026 Siding adjusted EBITDA guidance still implies 25-26% margins; if Siding holds margin while OSB stabilizes around the May 1 price assumption, LPX can rebuild earnings power later in 2026. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology