LION

Lionsgate StudiosA

NYSE / Media & Entertainment

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$19.00

+37.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$15.00

+8.6% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$10.00

-27.6% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-24

AI commentary

Primary-source confirmation is strong: the 8-K/press release shows a Q4/FY26 beat with $906.5M revenue, $117.5M operating income, $165.4M adjusted OIBDA, and $190.4M free cash flow [#8-K-2026-05-21]. Secondary post-print coverage said the stock rallied about 16% on the reaction, but I did not confirm a fresh analyst revision wave after the print. With the median target still around $11.06 versus a $14.95 anchor, this looks more like a positive earnings follow-through plus library/franchise re-rating attempt than a clean undervalued setup.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-24

Open post-earnings memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-21eventQ4/FY26 results show earnings power inflectionMedium impact

Lionsgate reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $906.5M, operating income of $117.5M, adjusted OIBDA of $165.4M, and free cash flow of $190.4M, while trailing 12-month library revenue topped $1B for the third straight quarter; management said the business is entering FY27 with stronger visibility [#8-K-2026-05-21].

2027-03-31catalystLibrary and franchise mix can support FY27 follow-throughMedium impact

The release emphasized branded, repeatable properties, strong library monetization, and a plan for scripted deliveries to double in fiscal 2027 versus fiscal 2026, which gives the studio a longer-dated earnings and cash-flow runway if the slate executes [#8-K-2026-05-21].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-24 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology