B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KSS
Kohl'sDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that Kohl's already showed meaningful operational cleanup in FY2025: Q4 gross margin improved 25 bps, Q4 SG&A dollars fell 4.9%, inventory was down 7%, operating cash flow rose to $1.4 billion for the year, and revolver borrowings were reduced to zero [#8-K-2026-03-10]. If Q1 confirms stabilization rather than another traffic deterioration, the stock has room to move because expectations are already muted.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
Momentum
97
Value
69
Sentiment
20
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $16.36
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +4.1
Value69 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment20 · Δ7d -6.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • Core moderate-income customers remain highly sensitive to inflation, food, fuel, healthcare, credit, and confidence pressures, which can reduce discretionary spending and traffic [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • The bear read is that the business still has not proven a top-line inflection.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-28
Muted FY2026 guide keeps the burden of proof high
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+22.8
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
20
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-20.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 97.0 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 20.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.79B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
113.38M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
0.15
P/FCF (TTM)
3.33
Rev YoY
-2.0%
EPS YoY
-7.5%
Gross Margin
+36.0%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
$5.96B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data