B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KSS
Kohl'sDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that Kohl's already showed meaningful operational cleanup in FY2025: Q4 gross margin improved 25 bps, Q4 SG&A dollars fell 4.9%, inventory was down 7%, operating cash flow rose to $1.4 billion for the year, and revolver borrowings were reduced to zero [#8-K-2026-03-10]. If Q1 confirms stabilization rather than another traffic deterioration, the stock has room to move because expectations are already muted.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
Momentum
71
Value
71
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $16.83
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d -1.4
Value71 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment33 · Δ7d +0.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • Core moderate-income customers remain highly sensitive to inflation, food, fuel, healthcare, credit, and confidence pressures, which can reduce discretionary spending and traffic [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • The bear read is that the business still has not proven a top-line inflection.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-28
Muted FY2026 guide keeps the burden of proof high
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
71
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
-7.8
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
33
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 70.9 / Value 70.8 / Sentiment 32.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.19B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
113.4M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
0.15
P/FCF (TTM)
3.33
Rev YoY
-2.0%
EPS YoY
-7.5%
Gross Margin
+36.0%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
$5.96B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data