B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KSS
Kohl'sCNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that Kohl's already showed meaningful operational cleanup in FY2025: Q4 gross margin improved 25 bps, Q4 SG&A dollars fell 4.9%, inventory was down 7%, operating cash flow rose to $1.4 billion for the year, and revolver borrowings were reduced to zero [#8-K-2026-03-10]. If Q1 confirms stabilization rather than another traffic deterioration, the stock has room to move because expectations are already muted.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
Momentum
97
Value
70
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.18
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +3.3
Value70 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment21 · Δ7d -7.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital structure risk has improved but is not gone: Kohl's issued $360 million of 10.00% senior secured notes due 2030, and the 10-K notes prior ratings downgrades and covenant sensitivity [#8-K-2026-03-10] [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • Core moderate-income customers remain highly sensitive to inflation, food, fuel, healthcare, credit, and confidence pressures, which can reduce discretionary spending and traffic [#10-K-2026-03-19].
- • The bear read is that the business still has not proven a top-line inflection.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-28
Muted FY2026 guide keeps the burden of proof high
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+22.4
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
21
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.0
Δ21d
-20.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 97.4 / Value 69.7 / Sentiment 21.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.79B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
113.38M
P/E (TTM)
12.5
P/S (TTM)
0.15
P/FCF (TTM)
3.33
Rev YoY
-2.0%
EPS YoY
-7.5%
Gross Margin
+36.0%
Op Margin
+3.2%
Net Debt
$5.96B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data