B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KEY
KeyCorpCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-10-23
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+4.6
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+4.6
Mixed
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-36.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+66.4
Score
AI commentary
The October 20 close was about 4.5% above October 19, and the October 22 adjusted-close anchor of $21.21 indicates that the initial gain broadly held. EPS surprise and company guidance are constructive, but post-print targets are mixed: DA Davidson raised its target while RBC lowered its target. Consensus revenue comparisons differ across sources and are not treated as a firm beat or miss; no reliable forward-estimate revision series was established. The stronger Q3 evidence supports an upgrade from April's tentative monitoring baseline, not a high-conviction rerating. Price reaction Historical prices DA Davidson revision RBC revision
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-23
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-11-06catalystQ3 earnings beat meets mixed post-print target revisionsMedium impact
KeyCorp reported $0.51 diluted EPS, $2.04 billion of revenue and 2.95% net interest margin; EPS exceeded Zacks' $0.46 consensus. The stock rose about 4.5% on October 20, while subsequent analyst targets moved in both directions, making persistence of the initial gain the near-term test. [#8-K-2026-10-20] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20] KeyCorp earnings release Zacks consensus comparison Price reaction
2026-12-31eventCommercial lending and credit outlook through year-endMedium impact
On the Q3 call, management lifted expected 2026 average loan growth to about 5% and commercial loan growth to about 10%, while lowering its full-year net charge-off outlook to 37–39 basis points from 40–45. Delivery, rather than the guidance change alone, is the test. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3] Q3 earnings call transcript
2026-12-31eventCompletion of the 2026 capital-return planMedium impact
KeyCorp repurchased $320 million of common shares in Q3. Management said roughly $250 million remained toward its $1.3 billion full-year repurchase target; completion depends on capital generation and management's measured capital approach. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20] KeyCorp earnings release [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3] Q3 earnings call transcript
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology