B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JILL
J.JillDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 management commentary indicated early traction from the strategic reset, while full-year sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook was reaffirmed. A Q2 result within or above the existing guide could support the sequential-improvement narrative.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -31.1.
What can break
Analyst coverage and target-count data are thin, limiting confidence in valuation and revision signals.
Momentum
95
Value
65
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.75
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +8.9
Value65 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -31.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -31.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst coverage and target-count data are thin, limiting confidence in valuation and revision signals.
- • Assortment, loyalty, digital, and merchandise-planning initiatives have limited validation and delayed benefit timing.
- • Q1 sales fell 6.0%, comparable sales fell 8.7%, gross margin declined 350 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA fell to $16.7 million from $27.3 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-09
Q2 FY26 earnings release scheduled
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+8.9
Δ21d
+1.7
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-2.5
Sentiment
35
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-31.1
Δ21d
-23.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.2 / Value 64.5 / Sentiment 34.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$279.29M
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
14.95M
P/E (TTM)
6.3
P/S (TTM)
0.35
P/FCF (TTM)
6.85
Rev YoY
-6.0%
EPS YoY
-58.8%
Gross Margin
+63.8%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$183.42M
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data